Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Gallup shows Feb. 2012 unemployment number of 9.0, sharp drop in job market, says this and rise in gas prices major factors in 2012

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2/17/12, "U.S. Unemployment Increases in Mid-February," Gallup Poll, Dennis Jacobe, "Underemployment also up, to 19.0%"

"The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, up from 8.6% for January. The mid-month reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January....

Seasonal forces typically cause unadjusted unemployment rates to increase at this time of year. In this regard, some of the sharp increase Gallup finds in unemployment and underemployment may result from seasonal factors. Although the government seasonally adjusts the U.S. unemployment rate, and the workforce participation rate could decline -- both of which could drive down its unemployment rate -- it still seems likely that the BLS will report an increase in the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for February.

Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January. This is consistent with a similar decline in Gallup's Job Creation Index to +13 in the second week of February, from +16 for January. It is also consistent with an economy that continues to struggle with modest growth, particularly as gas prices surge. Further, it suggests that it is premature to assume the condition of the economy will not remain a major issue for Americans both financially and politically in 2012."

How Gallup's Unemployment Measure Differs From the U.S. Government's Measure

via Drudge, chart from Gallup

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