Saturday, November 29, 2014

US oil and gas enterprises on non-federal lands have improved US economy and national security-NY Times. Oil and gas production has declined on US land controlled by fed. gov.

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NY Times opening sentence/paragraph invites readers to believe that emerging US energy independence is an Obama "achievement." Under Obama, oil and gas development on US public land has declined. US achievement is from state and private land

11/28/14, "Free Fall in Oil Price Underscores Shift Away From OPEC," NY Times, Clifford Krauss, Houston

"Since the economically crippling oil embargo of 1973, every American president has pledged to seek and achieve energy independence.

That elusive goal may finally have arrived, at least for the foreseeable future, with the failure of Saudi Arabia and its 11 oil cartel partners in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to agree to a production cut that would put a brake on plummeting crude prices.

On Friday, the benchmark American price for crude oil continued the free fall that began on Thursday, closing at $66.15, its lowest price in more than four years.

The inability or unwillingness of OPEC to act showed that the cartel was no longer the dominating producer whose decisions determine global supplies and prices. Suddenly, the United States — which is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia as the world’s top producer, possibly in a matter of months — is in that position, although the resiliency of that new command must still be tested.

This is a historic turning point,said Daniel Yergin, the energy historian. “The defining force now in world oil today is the growth of U.S. production. The outcome of the OPEC meeting is a clear indication that the oil exporters now recognize that this is a new market.”

For decades, the United States faced dwindling domestic production and rising demand, leading President George W. Bush to call on the country to get off its “addiction” to imported oil. But around eight years ago a few small oil companies began experimenting to produce oil from hard shale rocks in North Dakota and Texas, using hydraulic fracturing — fracking — and horizontal drilling techniques that proved effective in producing natural gas a few years earlier.

Domestic oil production has soared more 70 percent over the last six years, to roughly nine million barrels a day. The country is still a net importer, but with production growing by more than a million barrels a day every year, it is importing less and less almost every month.

Imports from OPEC producers have been cut by more than a half in recent years, forcing increasing competition among Saudi Arabia and other exporting countries seeking to replace the American market with Chinese and other Asian markets. That has produced more cracks in an organization in which competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran is already fierce.

That remarkable global turnaround has been a windfall for the United States, helping keep inflation in check, lower the trade deficit, strengthen the American dollar and bring relief to consumers.

On Friday, Americans paid an average of $2.79 a gallon for regular gasoline, according to the AAA motor club, nearly 50 cents less than a year ago.
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For David Goldwyn, the State Department’s coordinator for international energy affairs in the first Obama administration, OPEC’s decision not to cut was “strategic.”

“What we have now is a yearlong game of chicken,” he said. “The Saudis are waiting to see how much U.S. production adjusts because of prices and they are waiting to see how much pain the other major oil producers can take before they are willing to make meaningful cuts.” Referring to the global oil benchmark, he added, “If Brent sinks below $60, I think you will see OPEC hit the panic button pretty fast.” That would mean an extraordinary OPEC meeting, and emergency cuts in production.
The Brent price has fallen more than a third since June and closed on Friday at $70.15 a barrel. For OPEC producers like Venezuela and Iran, the tumbling price in oil has produced economic hardship and potential political problems.

Venezuela and Algeria contend that OPEC needed to band to together to cut production and raise prices. But Saudi Arabia has by far the most sway in OPEC, since the kingdom produces roughly one-third of OPEC output alone. It also has the financial muscle and spare capacity to lower or raise production whenever the Saudi royal family deems necessary.

Saudi Arabia resisted calls for lower production mainly because the countries that were most vociferous in calling for cuts would be the countries least able to actually cut their production since their cash-short governments are dependent on more, not less oil revenue.
And there was no guarantee that a cut in OPEC production would raise prices. Even if it did, that would only encourage more American output. So far, United States oil production has proved resilient no matter the price.

Even as prices slid in October, production in the Bakken shale field in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford field in Texas— the two primary promoters of the American oil production boom — increased more than 3 percent over the month before.

That is because American producers keep improving the efficiency and output of their wells with new technology, and because in the short run, lower prices can actually encourage companies to produce more to pay debts and dividends.

Energy experts caution that there is no guarantee that the United States will permanently keep its new powerful edge on world markets. Eventually, low oil prices will drive down production in higher-cost fields, drive marginal companies that are deeply in debt out of business and encourage major companies to slow down their investment in new wells. Several companies have already shaved their 2015 exploration budgets.

And OPEC has been weakened before, only to stage a comeback. The cartel is still able to produce about a third of the global oil market.

After the oil price spikes of the 1970s, the United States and other industrialized countries raised their strategic reserves, put into effect conservation policies and incentivized oil production. New output from places like Alaska and the North Sea in the 1980s helped produce a glut, sending oil prices plummeting. Saudi Arabia lobbied its OPEC partners for production quota cuts, and the kingdom cut its own production. When other OPEC members failed to comply with the new quotas, prices collapsed in 1986, and Saudi Arabia lost valuable markets for years to come.

OPEC has never completely regained the power it once had, but in the early 2000s, oil prices spiked again primarily because of the rapid growth in demand from China and other developing countries and increasing unrest in several oil-producing countries like Nigeria and Venezuela. With the oil market growing tighter, Saudi Arabia expanded its spare capacity and kept a lid on spiraling prices.

An equilibrium price of around $100 a barrel kept producing and consuming countries reasonably happy. But now the United States production, combined with slowing economic activity, in China and Europe, have broken the balance.

“OPEC still has power in that they can still cut production and raise price if they choose to do so,” said Michael C. Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research and sometimes an adviser to OPEC. But he added, “They don’t have the same power they once did because so many of the members are in bad financial condition and so it’s harder for them to cut production and lose revenues in the short term to raise prices.”"

"A version of this article appears in print on November 29, 2014, on page B1 of the New York edition with the headline: Free Fall in Oil Price Underscores Power Shift."


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From 2009-2013 production of crude oil dropped by 6 percent and natural gas by 28 percent on US federal lands and offshore areas:

11/21/14, "WH Vows to Boost Fossil Fuel Production – in Ukraine," CNS News, Penny Starr
 
"The Obama administration, no fan of fossil fuels, has delayed a decision on the Keystone XL pipeline for six years, but today it announced its support for fossil fuel production in Ukraine.

“We are supporting Ukrainian efforts to enhance its own energy production, including through technical assistance to help restructure Ukraine’s national oil and gas company, Naftogaz, and through the introduction of new technologies to boost outputs from existing and new conventional gas fields in Ukraine,” says a fact sheet released by the White House.

The fact sheet, which lists all the ways the U.S. is assisting Ukraine, was issued in conjunction with Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to that country.

There is no mention in the fact sheet of developing alternative energy sources such as solar or wind energy generation in Ukraine, as the Obama administration insists the U.S. must do.

Moscow cut off gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid debts in June, and Ukraine is now relying on domestic supplies and shipments from other countries.

The development of oil and gas resources on public lands in the United States has declined under the Obama administration, which is making a multi-billion investment in renewable energy.

U.S. production of crude oil and natural gas on state and privately owned lands rose from 2009 to 2013 by 61 percent and 33 percent, respectively, according to the Congressional Research Service. But on federal lands and offshore areas, production of crude oil dropped by 6 percent and natural gas by 28 percent over the same period.

While he's in Ukraine, Biden will announce that the U.S. is giving $3 million to the United Nation’s World Food Program to help “displaced” people and others suffering from the ongoing conflict with Russia in eastern Ukraine.

That brings the total U.S. financial commitment to Ukraine to $320 million for the year. “The United States stands ready to continue to work with our partners to provide Ukraine with sufficient financing as it stabilizes its economy and carries out urgently needed reforms,” the fact sheet states.

The fact sheet also includes a wide range of other assistance, from defending human rights to trade diversification.

According to the White House, Biden, who is traveling with his wife, Jill, is meeting today with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and will next travel to Turkey."
 




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