With Florida's unusually high turnover rate, only a quarter of its registered voters were around when Jeb Bush last ran for office. Donald Trump leads Real Clear Politics avg. of Florida polls. 'What you see in Florida is no different than what you see reflected around the country,' said Rubio

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10/27/15, "Florida Voters Spurn Bush, Rubio for Trump," Real Clear Politics, Rebecca Berg

"It is also a state with unusually high voter turnover. Of Florida’s 12.9 million registered voters, roughly one quarter were around when Bush last ran for office, according to a study this year by Bloomberg News and University of Florida political scientist Daniel Smith....

The RealClearPolitics average of Florida polling shows Trump leading Ben Carson, the second-ranking Republican, by eight points, and Rubio and Bush by at least 10....

As a primary state, Florida more closely resembles Texas than it does Iowa or New Hampshire: It is big and diverse, and thus campaigning there is done primarily through targeted paid advertising and earned media, rather than through retail politicking....

That fickle dynamic would seem to favor a candidate who already has established a reputation in the state and run campaigns there, such as Rubio or Bush....

“Normally that’s exactly what you would expect,” said Florida lobbyist Mac Stipanovich, a Bush supporter. “But this year is anything but normal.”

And, for now at least, it is Trump who has the momentum.

Bush and Rubio are not technically the only Floridians running for president. Trump owns a home in West Palm Beach, as does retired neurosurgeon Carson; and Mike Huckabee now lives in Santa Rosa Beach.

But Rubio and Bush are the only ones in this group to have won statewide elections in Florida, which would seem to give them a baked-in advantage with voters and a head start on organizing and winning endorsements in the state....

Among those voters familiar with Bush and Rubio, there is also a deep familiarity with their political warts.
 
“I don’t want to say anything about Jeb Bush, because nothing good is going to come from my mouth,” said Luis Rojas, who attended Trump’s Miami rally.

“Marco Rubio is a traitor who went to Washington, D.C., and ran for president from day one, never cared about the Florida voters,” said Linda Polsney, another audience member at the rally in Miami. “He is missing one vote after another.”

To date, Bush’s strategy has centered on his accomplishments as governor of Florida....But the people who elected him seem to have moved on, at least for now....
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"It's a very unusual year, and I think part of it is that people are really angry about the direction of our country,” Rubio said. “What you see in Florida is no different than what you see reflected around the country.”...

Bush and Rubio are not the only home teams struggling in this Republican primary. Gov. John Kasich is also well behind Trump in Ohio polling, as is Gov. Chris Christie in New Jersey. But Trump’s dominance in Florida is all the more surprising given the high expectations surrounding Bush and Rubio, and in light of Trump’s strongly anti-immigrant rhetoric"...

[Ed. note: Not accurate. Trump isn't anti-immigrant. He's against illegal immigration.]

(continuing): "---which would seem incompatible with Florida’s robust Hispanic population.

Even Trump was skeptical. At his Miami rally, he revealed in a surprising moment of candor that he had worried his anti-immigrant message would not work in the majority Latino city.

“To be honest, I wasn’t so sure here I could talk about walls,” he said, referring to his proposal to build a wall along the border with Mexico. “Tomorrow in Jacksonville I can talk about walls, but here I was a little hesitant.”

But, as he has done everywhere in this election cycle, Trump defied even his own expectations. The crowd roared its approval and chanted “U-S-A!”"...





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